> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://prodds.gitbook.io/prodds/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://prodds.gitbook.io/prodds/prodds-predict/how-to-make-prediction.md).

# How to Make Prediction?

**Prodds brings pari-mutuel betting on-chain through&#x20;**<mark style="color:blue;">**Prodds Predict Smart Contracts**</mark>**, which are audited by Hashlock**. Each prediction pool operates as a separate on-chain wallet, enabling users to verify their account balances, pool balances, and all transactions directly on the blockchain.

{% embed url="<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXjpE04kQcw>" %}

## Prediction Process Overview

1. **Place Your Prediction:** Select your expected outcome and submit a prediction. Each prediction earns a <mark style="color:blue;">**Prodds Predict Slip NFT—your digital “predict slip”**</mark>—which serves as proof of participation and allows you to claim winnings. The NFT can also be transferred to external wallets and sold on secondary marketplaces.
2. **Pari-Mutuel Betting Model:** Prodds uses a **pari-mutuel system** where odds are not fixed until the prediction pool closes. This means your final odds depend on the collective pool and vary based on entries.
3. **Odds Calculation:**
   * Aggregate Pool Value: The total $RDM amount across all predictions in the pool.
   * Platform Fee Rate: The fee rate, which varies based on the pool size, is deducted from winnings to support platform operations.
   * Prediction-Specific Pool Value: The portion of the pool allocated to users sharing your prediction outcome.
   * The formula for calculating the final odds is as follows:

$$
\text{Final Odds} = \frac{\text{Aggregate Pool Value} \times (1 - \text{Platform Fee Rate})}{\text{Prediction-Specific Pool Value}}
$$

<details>

<summary>Example 1 - A simple demonstration</summary>

Scenario: You place a prediction of 30 $RDM on Team A.

* Aggregate Pool Value: 1,000,000 $RDM.
* Platform Fee Rate: 2.6%.
* Prediction-Specific Pool Value: 400,000 $RDM.

If your prediction is correct, your winnings will be calculated as follows:

* Winnings: $$\frac{1,000,000 \times 30}{400,000}=75.00$$
* Platform Fee: $$75.00 \times 2.6% = 1.95$$
* Net Payout: $$75.00 - 1.95 = 73.05$$

</details>

<details>

<summary>Example 2 - Discount on platform fee with Loss Shield Applied</summary>

Scenario: Using the same conditions as Example 1, but with the assumption that:&#x20;

* One of the users on the losing side activated the Loss Shield feature with a prediction of 1,000 $RDM;
* You have a 50% discount on the Platform Fee based on your VIP level.

If your prediction is correct, your winnings will be calculated as follows:

* Winnings: $$\frac{(1,000,000 - 1,000) \times 30}{400,000} = 74.92$$
* Platform Fee: $$74.92 \times 2.6% \times (1 - 0.50) = 0.98$$
* Net Payout: $$74.92 - 0.98 = 73.94$$

</details>