How to Make Prediction?

Prodds brings pari-mutuel betting on-chain through Prodds Predict Smart Contracts, which are audited by Hashlock. Each prediction pool operates as a separate on-chain wallet, enabling users to verify their account balances, pool balances, and all transactions directly on the blockchain.

Prediction Process Overview

1. Place Your Prediction: Select your expected outcome and submit a prediction. Each prediction earns a Prodds Predict Slip NFT—your digital “predict slip”—which serves as proof of participation and allows you to claim winnings. The NFT can also be transferred to external wallets and sold on secondary marketplaces.

2. Pari-Mutuel Betting Model: Prodds uses a pari-mutuel system where odds are not fixed until the prediction pool closes. This means your final odds depend on the collective pool and vary based on entries.

3. Odds Calculation:

   • Aggregate Pool Value: The total $RDM amount across all predictions in the pool.

   • Platform Fee Rate: The fee rate, which varies based on the pool size, is deducted from winnings to support platform operations.

   • Prediction-Specific Pool Value: The portion of the pool allocated to users sharing your prediction outcome.

   • The formula for calculating the final odds is as follows:

$$\text{Final Odds} = \frac{\text{Aggregate Pool Value} \times (1 - \text{Platform Fee Rate})}{\text{Prediction-Specific Pool Value}}$$

Example 1 - A simple demonstration

Scenario: You place a prediction of 30 $RDM on Team A.

• Aggregate Pool Value: 1,000,000 $RDM.

• Platform Fee Rate: 2.6%.

• Prediction-Specific Pool Value: 400,000 $RDM.

If your prediction is correct, your winnings will be calculated as follows:

• Winnings: $\frac{1,000,000 \times 30}{400,000}=75.00$
• Platform Fee: $75.00 \times 2.6\% = 1.95$
• Net Payout: $75.00 - 1.95 = 73.05$

Example 2 - Discount on platform fee with Loss Shield Applied

Scenario: Using the same conditions as Example 1, but with the assumption that:

• One of the users on the losing side activated the Loss Shield feature with a prediction of 1,000 $RDM;

• You have a 50% discount on the Platform Fee based on your VIP level.

If your prediction is correct, your winnings will be calculated as follows:

• Winnings: $\frac{(1,000,000 - 1,000) \times 30}{400,000} = 74.92$
• Platform Fee: $74.92 \times 2.6\% \times (1 - 0.50) = 0.98$
• Net Payout: $74.92 - 0.98 = 73.94$